Dubai, UAE 13 July: A new report by ANAROCK examines Dubai‘s real estate market performance as an economic indicator amid the broader regional and humanitarian implications of the recent conflict in the Middle East. Within this context, the report finds that Dubai‘s residential real estate market demonstrated notable resilience during and following the regional geopolitical tensions earlier this year.
Transaction activity recovered steadily as investor confidence returns, finds the report ‘Dubai Real Estate: Built on Vision. Proven by Numbers‘. Dubai‘s housing market recorded AED 225.7 Bn worth of residential transactions in H1 2026, despite the conflict during the period.
Aayush Puri, CEO – Residential, Middle East & CEO – ANAROCK Channel Partners (India), says, “The report highlights that while geopolitical tensions briefly affected buyer sentiment during March and April 2026, the correction was largely sentiment-driven – not structural. Residential prices softened by just 4-7% in the February to April period, significantly outperforming the DFM Real Estate stock index, which crashed 34% at its peak – the widest sentiment-to-asset gap of any Dubai crisis on record.”
ANAROCK data indicates overall residential prices in Dubai in H1 2026 stand at approx. AED 1,900/sq.ft. – in same period of 2025, it was AED 1,800/sq.ft., amounting to a 6% yearly gain.
“The recovery has been underpinned by robust market fundamentals,” adds Aayush Puri. “Dubai recorded AED 225.7 billion worth of residential transactions in the first half of 2026, representing 15% growth against 2024 but dropping 16% against 2025. Moreover, off-plan transactions consistently accounted for nearly 70–77% of market activity throughout the period, highlighting sustained buyer confidence despite short-term uncertainty.”
“The conflict early in 2026 tested Dubai‘s residential market at a time when regional uncertainty was at its peak. In the months that followed, buyer activity returned steadily, prices remained resilient, and demand continued to be supported by strong structural fundamentals rather than speculative momentum.”
Buyer Enquiries Rebound
The report highlights that while transaction enquiries slowed immediately following the geopolitical escalation, demand recovered steadily once ceasefire efforts progressed. Weekly residential sales touched AED 10 billion during the recovery phase, indicating that investors viewed the slowdown as temporary rather than a change in long-term market fundamentals.
Fundamentals Intact
Beyond the immediate recovery, Dubai continues to benefit from its structural drivers. The city welcomed approximately 470 new residents every day during 2025, its population crossed 4.03 million, and residential sales reached a record AED 547 billion across 206,166 transactions in 2025, reflecting continued global investor interest. The expansion of Golden Visa eligibility for mortgaged properties is expected to further broaden the pool of eligible buyers.
Market Dynamics: Homebuyer Trends
According to ANAROCK, the market is now entering a more selective phase, where investment performance will increasingly depend on micro-market fundamentals rather than broad-based price appreciation.
Premium locations such as Palm Jumeirah and Downtown Dubai are expected to continue benefiting from strong global wealth inflows, while emerging infrastructure-led corridors such as Dubai South are positioned for sustained long-term growth. Conversely, supply-heavy mid-market locations are likely to witness more measured appreciation.
The report highlights the buyer trends emerging from the 2025 data:
- Buyers that actively bought residential property in Dubai in 2025 hailed from >150 countries – with India at the top (22%), followed by UK 17%, China 14%
- Over 1,29,600 new investors entered Dubai market in 2025, up 23% y-o-y; around 80% of transactions are cash funded, insulating the market from interest rate shocks
- 38% buyers bought homes in Dubai for end-use, 28% buy-to-let income, 21% Golden Visa residency, while 13% capital preservation.
Historical Market Shock Analysis
The report further analyses the impact of various global and domestic events on Dubai‘s residential market and the subsequent recovery phases. Armed conflict and economic/financial shocks are distinct categories of disruption, and are presented in terms of their observed market impact:
- Global Financial Crisis (2008 to 2010): Residential prices fell ~40% and took 3.5 years to recover – the slowest rebound in Dubai‘s history
- Oil price collapse (2015 to 2016): Only a 2% correction, since oil is under 1% of Dubai‘s GDP
- COVID-19 (2020): A 6% correction which recovered in 13 months, the fastest full-cycle turnaround at the time
- Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022): No decline at all, Dubai was a net beneficiary as Russian capital re-rated Palm Jumeirah pricing
- Iran conflict (2026): 4-7% correction, the smallest price impact observed among the events analysed, with recovery already underway within four months
Going forward, ANAROCK’s base-case outlook projects 4-7% residential price growth during 2026, supported by continued population growth, expanding international buyer participation and favourable government policies.
While geopolitical developments remain a key risk to monitor, the report concludes that Dubai‘s residential market has once again demonstrated its ability to absorb external shocks while maintaining long-term investment momentum.
